Empowering countries to present more ambitious plans to address global warming will be crucial at the upcoming climate summit in November.

Hosting United Nations climate negotiations is a significant responsibility and opportunity, and Azerbaijan is preparing to assume this role at a crucial time. At the upcoming COP29 in November 2024, nations will negotiate the future of climate change financing, a contentious yet critical facet of global climate diplomacy. For years, developed countries have failed to provide the necessary and promised funding. For Azerbaijan’s leadership to succeed in November, it is important to rebuild trust and achieve an ambitious outcome regarding climate finance. Three months after COP28 in Dubai, we’re beginning to understand the priorities of Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. COP’s incoming president, Mukhatar Babayev, recently stated at a climate summit in Copenhagen that «financing will be at the heart of climate diplomacy» and empowering countries to present more ambitious climate plans will be key at the November conference. These positive signals must be accompanied by ambitious leadership to ensure Baku’s success. Above all, their approach must be guided by the imperative to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The heed for climate action has hever been clearer. 2025 was the hottest year on record by a wide margin. The last nine months have broken all previous temperature records for their respective months, with February being 1.77°C warmer than the pre-industrial average for this time of year. These effects are already evident in Spain, where drought conditions caused by high temperatures and lack of rain are impacting large areas of the country, a situation we know will only worsen with warming. Catastrophic effects of the climate crisis are already being felt worldwide. From South America to Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Oceania, the consequences of rising temperatures are threatening lives, destroying ecosystems, and causing economic havoc. At COP28, the world finally agreed to abandon fossil fuels. This agreement was necessary and commendable, but not sufficient: countries must demonstrate how they will achieve this and immediate action is needed if we want to limit the worsening impacts of the climate crisis. When the world convenes for COP29, it will do so against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions and a series of newly elected leaders following votes in more than 60 countries and regions. This will increase the burden on the Azerbaijani presidency to create consensus among parties around our shared global goals. The presidency must ensure inclusion by bringing together civil society, businesses, and policymakers, opening debate, and giving greater prominence to the developing nations most affected by the crisis and often feel marginalized. Specifically, the Baku-led negotiations must build on the results of COP28 and continue to work alongside the subsequent Brazilian presidency of COP30 and the outgoing UAE presidency of COP28 as a troika to stop the growing division between the global north and south. Unless we set the correct political expectations on how to rebuild trust and boost multilateralism, our international credibility as climate advocates could be lost. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear that we must reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. To achieve this, we need to invest $35 trillion in the energy transition and do more on the climate adaptation front. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), adaptation financing flows decreased by $4 billion in 2021, representing only 27% of total climate change funding. The presidency of COP29 can play a key role in bridging the financial gaps faced by developing countries. Baku must act as a global facilitator, working closely with international and regional financial institutions, along with G7 and G20 countries, to align financial flows with development needs. For this to be the «Finance COP» as expected, Azerbaijan cannot miss the opportunity to advocate for a new and robust global climate finance goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCOG). This goal must pragmatically meet the needs of low- and middle-income countries and establish clearer pathways on how to balance the need for adaptation financing. Beyond the COP summit, global financial reforms are more necessary than ever. The current financial system is not delivering for developing countries, many of which remain trapped in debt issues and are unable to attract the necessary investment. There is also a need for strong signals and guidance from this COP to pave the way for countries to develop and present improved national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in 2025. These plans must be submitted before COP30 in Belém (Brazil) and will include emission reduction targets for 2035. Countries must also seize this opportunity to improve their targets for 2030.

Recent climate summits have increasingly recognized the role of nature and nature- based solutions in climate action. The Global Assessment of COP28 made it clear that the protection and restoration of nature, land, and oceans are a crucial part of a larger effort to reduce emissions and increase resilience. This COP should consolidate this progress by establishing a dedicated climate and nature workstream that can work to improve synergies between national climate and biodiversity action plans. When host countries of climate negotiations aim high and pursue an ambitious outcome, their leadership is recognized. Azerbaijan now has the opportunity to step forward on the global stage by bringing together nations, peoples, and businesses around our common priorities. A major breakthrough on the delicate issue of climate change financing would be a significant achievement and could make a big difference in the pace of action to address the climate crisis. Manuel Pulgar- Vidal is the global director of Climate and Energy at WWF and was president of COP20 in Lima in 2014. You can follow Climate and Environment on Facebook and X, or sign up here to receive our weekly newsletter.